A Primary Assessment
It is March, and while Senator John McCain is busy consolidating the republican party base as the presumptive nominee, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue their battle royale for the top Democratic spot. Despite Camp Hillary’s assertions to the contrary, all signs and confounding mathematical formulations point toward an eventual Obama coronation in Denver later this summer.
Discounting the ongoing recount movements in Michigan and Florida, which could throw those states’ delegates back into the mix and Hillary back in the overall lead, the Senator from Illinois has momentum (two straight wins in Wyoming and Mississippi) and a clear delegate lead as we head into Pennsylvania in less than a week.
The past is often a good predictor of the future, and recent (very) historical indicators point to an eventual Obama-McCain title fight, with early odds giving Obama the slightest of edges. Let’s look at a couple of these indicators, one pertaining to the Democratic narrative, and the other to the general election, that let us make such a bold prediction:
Trend One: Obama continues to rake in the cash – lots of it
Sure, Hillary had a strong February, with a $35million fundraising haul. But Obama took it to another level, raising a record $55million during those same 29 days. $45million of that total originated online, including 90 percent coming by way of incremental, individual donations of $100 or less. We think this Internet thing may catch on, after all.
Alright, that’s staggering, folks – an undeniable tide of at least 400,000 supporters across the country last month alone pulled out their pocketbooks for Obama. What’s more interesting and certainly more telling, is that the Obama campaign tells us 75 percent of these web donors were first timers. As campaign energy and enthusiasm go, that’s a check plus in Obama’s column – an ominous sign for Hillary.
Trend Two: John McCain is getting real bang for his bucks
Whoever emerges from the Democratic side will have a clear fundraising advantage over Sen. McCain, if current trends continue. In fact, even before February’s record setting totals from Obama, both he and Hillary had tripled and doubled, respectively, McCain’s donation totals through January.
That aside, there is at least one reason for Republican optimism, even as Democrats continue lapping them in the race for donations and demonstrable momentum. It’s this – McCain’s return on investment for his TV ad spends is considerably better than both of his remaining Democratic rivals. For every delegate acquired, Obama and Hillary are spending $33,000 and $25,000 each, respectively, in television advertising. For his part, McCain’s is a frugal $9200 per delegate.
Small potatoes? Sure.
Forced frugality? Maybe.
But one sliver of hope for Republicans during what’s become a virtual Democrat infomercial during this extended delegate chase. Regardless of any fundraising discrepancies during the general election, they can be assured their standard bearer will spend his cash wisely.
That counts for something, right?
This entry was posted on Friday, March 14th, 2008 at 8:10 pm and is filed under Enversa POV. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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